Just small changes in starting conditions can result in big changes to forecasts,” said Ken Mylne, Met Office Science Fellow ...

Discover how probability distribution methods can help predict stock market returns and improve investment decisions. Learn to assess risk and potential gains.

The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck. By David Spiegelhalter. Pelican; 512 pages; £22. To be published in America by W.W. Norton in March; $32.99 A hazard of ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...