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Normal distribution curve that illustrates standard deviations. Each band has 1 standard deviation, and the labels indicate the approximate proportion of area . Source: M. W. Toews Creative Commons ...

Welcome to my new blog here on Forbes.com. Over the new few months I’m going to be talking about a couple of quite disparate but fascinating areas: book publishing and high-impact low-probability ...

New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft and then presidential candidate Donald Trump before an NFL game between the New England Patriots and the New York Jets in Foxborough, Massachusetts, in October.

Looking at the events of these past few years after the pandemic, I can personally say that my confidence in predicting the future has gone down. Generally, many of us have this belief that things ...

We are often reminded in the fire service that accidents, minor or catastrophic, begin with a chain of events escalating without proper intervention. The initial domino falls, creating the inevitable ...

We’ve seen a number of outlier events in 2016, but the experts predicted them poorly and are labeling them “black swans.” According to Nassim Taleb, black swan events are highly unexpected for a given ...

Probability has a popular meaning that is not the same as the mathematical meaning. As a small-business owner, you may act on hunches, guesses and instincts. After such actions, you might even say you ...